Can't share note I'm afraid, watermarked, but yes of course they provide a P/L, but I can address some of the points you raise:
I was under the impression that the rebate levels had more or less stabilised - MQ make no mention in the note. As for weekly volumes, they aren't extrapolating based on 1 week they're just giving the last data point in a trend. The total weekly retail prescriptions for the market are below (source: Bloomberg)
That is not indicative of a growing T market. In fact you could easily argue that 77k/week is overly generous as an assumption.
Well, they're not just forecasting the short term. They're forecasting out to 2020, and they also point out the collapse in Testim scripts post a Testim generic becoming available. Saying substitution is a threat to pricing is hardly a long bow...
No need to worry, the heart attack and stroke will get you first! (j/k)
Seemed like a reasonable report to me - I agree, there isn't a huge amount of new things in it, but it does outline the core issues facing ACR pretty well.
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