CTP central petroleum limited

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Good work Jake! I think you're right but I guess we'll know how...

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Denny Crane

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17/08/17

19:34

Post #: 26573505
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Originally posted by jake0002 ↑

I think it worthwhile to put some perspective on what looks like some concern here.
this is my understanding only, and happy to be corrected.

what is actually stated is this:

"..The Placement and Entitlement Offer are fully underwritten by Macquarie Capital (Australia) Limited
(Macquarie) and Morgans Corporate Limited (Morgans).

A number of institutional and sophisticated investors have subscribed for Shares in the Placement
and/or entered into sub-underwriting arrangements with Macquarie and Morgans for the
Entitlement Offer.

Macquarie Commodities and Global Markets Group (a subsidiary of Macquarie Bank Limited), which
currently holds 2.3% of Central’s shares on issue, intends to participate for its entitlement in the
offer and will not as a result of this transaction be increasing its relative shareholding in Central..."

so:
1. any Shortfall will be split between Mac Capital and Morgans. We do not know the basis of that split because we don't have the Underwriting Agreement. But presumably, Mac Capital will not get all of the Shortfall anyway.

2. a portion of any Shortfall simply will not go to Mac Capital and Morgans, because they have executed sub-underwriting agreements with Instos and Sophicated Inv. We don't know the quantity or just who they are.

3. importantly, it is explicitly stated that Macquarie Commodities and Global Markets Group will subscribe to its share of the R/I - and WILL NOT exceed its proportionate share of the issue. So that subsidiary will not end up owning more than its 2.3%.

So it seems to me that it is entirely possible that MBL Group might end up owning more than the current 2.3% held by Mac Global.
But that will only happen IF the R/I is not fully subscribed, and what number of shares have not been sub-underwritten by parties independent of MBL. And what number of shares are Underwritten by Morgans.

So all in all, I reckon any increase in % shareholding by the entire MBL group will be minimal.
Certainly not a Controlling shareholding, and certainly not a Change in Control circumstance.

If MBL was hell bent on increasing its shareholding, I would have thought that Mac Global (the current s/h) would have been the entity which underwrote the issue. Mac Capital is not s/h, and its role is as an Underwriter - that's its business. But yep, one would think that the love for CTP would spread throughout MBL group?
And yep, its common for Underwriters to see shortfall shares go to favoured clients.
All imho, just an interested investor.
cheers

Expand

Good work Jake! I think you're right but I guess we'll know how many shares Mac has when the top 20 list is released after the RI shares have been allotted in September.

I imagine the CPSA will request the Top 20 be updated immediately after the RI?

It will be interesting to see who the newcomers are to the register and how many are simply new large shareholders (with no particular allegiance) as opposed to the institution types that RC could rely on for support, like those that supported the existing board recently and, will most likely vote with management at the AGM.

I think RC will get sufficient support at the AGM to carry on but it will be only for 12 months during which time he has to deliver on his promises.

Bring on the boring annuity company!

Denny Crane!

CTP Price at posting: 11.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
8 Upvote

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