The Macquarie's commodities team has been behind the curve for quite some time on oil prices, and only now playing catch up. They had thought oil prices would drop in 2023-24 due to US recession, drop in China demand and oversupply from OPEC+ and have been wrong on all counts.
The stock analyst covering Karoon probably had a different view on the outlook on oil in 2022-23, hence the $5.15/share target IF oil was US$100/bbl. Looks like the analysts is winning the day, as he can creep up his target price only when the commodities team raise their long term outlook on oil.
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- Macquarie says Karoon worth $5.15 if oil > 100
Macquarie says Karoon worth $5.15 if oil > 100, page-634
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