The substance behind Mac's initial valuation of 36c was that...

The substance behind Mac's initial valuation of 36c was that they didn't think they needed to price in SDV or JB as they would not be built.
Instead their forward model showed Galaxy simply banking cash for the forward years.
No explanation behind that. Just banking cash. Not investing in other assets. Nothing.
It was ludicrous analysis.
Neither did they account for the tax losses in any of those calculations.

Leaving aside their probable culpability with the whole post-merge sell&short period, where they masterfully set up negative press to back up the whole move, then later ignored their own price point and broker reports show their traders buying millions of stock in the 50s.
They adjusted their price up from 36c to 46c after the new contract was announced, as it was completely untenable to ignore the massive profitability (but still did their best).

The irony is that throughout their continued decision not to price in JV or SDV, that they put value to other lithium speculative companies, much further off production.
They never explained the rationale why demand was so patchy as that it was only there in companies in which they already had large holdings.

I have the report saved somewhere. But save your time. It was as thin as catwalk model in terms of credibility at the time, and their update was by the very same junior commodity analyst.

AT explained to me that he actually felt a bit sorry for some of these analysts. They may have to cover several commodities and that lithium was more demanding than any of them. One analyst said he had to have his head around 4 times more information than any other commodity, as it was inextricably linked to tech, materials, energy, chemical and automotive industries. One conversation that he had at the time was about the famous "oversupply" argument.

He simply asked
AT: Well what happens if there is over-supply?
Do the new mines actually get built and how easy will it be for them to find finance?
Mr Over Supply : No they probably won't. And financing them won't be easy.
AT : So, then. If the mines that are meant to be coming don't get built or financed - what happens to the supposed over-supply?
Mr Over Supply: It doesn't happen.
AT: Then what happens to Galaxy's product pricing?
Mr Over Supply: It goes up.
AT: Thank you. Good bye.