GXY 0.00% $5.28 galaxy resources limited

Macquarie Updated GXY to Neutral, page-43

  1. 6,236 Posts.
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    Unfortunately, I tried this previously and the link would only take you as far as the Macquarie page and not let you access the report.
    As Air conditioner has commented: don't waste your time reading the report. They are up to the same tricks as previously. For e.g. the LCE price forecasts that drive the Macquarie model for GXY for 2018, 2019 & 2020 are between US$150/ t - US$350/t less than the LCE forecast for the same time period they use for their model valuing ORE. How do they justify that???
    Another piece of "artistry" by the big Mac is they do not forecast any revenue from SDV until FY2020 - and only have an estimate of 8.5kt of LCE in that financial year. Back ending the revenues is a very old trick, but a good one when you are using a DCF model with a steep discount rate.
    Any objective assessment of GXY will likely yield a much different (and more reasonable) estimate of the value of GXY.
    And, to highlight my point as to the subjectivity of the report, Mac Research states that "we expect it (GXY) to continue to benefit from strong pricing in FY17 and FY18" (page 10 of the report) yet their model uses prices of US$904/t for FY17 and US$648 for FY18..... i.e. a 28.3% reduction from one year to the next. Hardly "strong pricing"!!!!
    I'd like to see AT pick up the phone to Ben Crowley and seek a please explain from this so called expert analyst.
 
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