Thanks for the figure. I understand the issue of dividends but...

Thanks for the figure.

I understand the issue of dividends but because of the marginal rate, I like companies investing in the business than paying out a dividend. So I do not think everyone values the dividend equally. There are numerous studies done showing there is no difference in the long term between dividend-paying companies and non paying companies. Most of them are done in the US so might not be comparable. I do think it is valuable for Australian investors (elections lost on the issue) unsure whether it is straightforward as you think.

I would like to take a PE of 15 which is close to its long-term median (15.32). Then the current value (22) is fair value. However, It has gone to low as 6 in a recessionary/ adverse environment. In fact, in 2020, revenue did decrease and margin came under pressure. We already know the Australian business is slowing (It still accounts for 80% of the revenue). Then the growth is coming from the USA I am very optimistic long-term, but in the short term would expect the operating expenses to go up, and margins to come down.

The current PEG ratio (PE/growth) is still over one. I think if the growth slows further current value has downside risk. Also, the stock market is a forward-looking creature.

That was the basis I thought sub 20 is fair value, but the sentiment might push the value down further. But thank you for bringing the value of dividends into the equation.