Macro Gold Discussion - Ramelius, page-13

Gold is simply having "the pause that refreshes" at the moment.

From a chart perspective (below is a 12-month chart), it has had a stellar run up with only a few bumps along the way, such that the MACD was getting quite extended on the charts.

MACD has deflated in the past 2 months and is showing signs of turning back up again in the near term. Note also that I see the move up from $2,300 a year ago as having 5 clear waves:

> Wave 1 - $2,300 to almost $2,500
> Wave 2 - $2,500 to about $2,350
> Wave 3 - I am looking at the recent $3,500 top as the conclusion of an extended Wave 3 that in itself had 5 waves - (1) $2,350 to $2,800 then (2) $2,800 to $2,550 then (3) $2,550 to $3,200 then (4) $3,200 to $2,980 and finally $2,980 to $3,500.

We are now in Wave 4 and I am unsure if that concluded with the recent circa $3,120 low (in a classic A-B-C move) or if that was just the "A" Wave of a larger A-B-C correction for Wave 4 that may yet run for a few more months.

A break above $3,500 would suggest we have concluded Wave 4 and are in Wave 5.



Overall, I expect at some stage in the near-term gold will resume it upward trend and breach the $3,500 recent high. I don't have a clear target at this stage, but I think (my opinion only) everything is looking positive from the way I am interpreting the charts.