No problems, take your time.
I understand the strategy and have double checked it today. Basically, you wait for the inversions, see that US unemployment is rising, sell shares, and then buy them back when the LEI starts rising again. I do not have a problem with that. Theoretically, it is sound, and the charts that you have back it up.
However, in reality, there seems to be too many conditionals to make it dependable, which is what you keep giving out. Whether it be selling while the lights are green, using the Wilshire 5000, making sure the curve has to inverted for X amount of time etc. And, I have found another one that you will give me too.
For example, I found the chart of the US Conference Board Leading Economic Index going back to 1985, as that is your signal as to when to buy back in. It shows that in May 2001 the LEI started to turn up during the recession, which would have led you to buy back in and lose 20%+ on paper until 2003.
Also, if this strategy is going to work in the future, then it should have worked in the past. However, I cannot imagine that if you were trading shares in 1989 that you would have had access to this data, let alone have the money to trade shares, or be willing to pay all the brokerage fees to cycle in and out back then.
Likewise, in the 1950's and 1960's, when the DOW went from about 200 to 1000, you would have had to have been pretty nimble to get out and in, considering how strong the bull market was. It was a completely different investing landscape back then, and it is likely to be quite different in the future too.
If I was to outline my strategy in a nutshell, it would be this. Look for any reason not to buy, keep listing those reasons up, then when I cannot imagine any more, buy a test sample. If the test sample checks out, complete the purchase, and then move on to the next thing. There is always something new.
Hopefully, you can test out your strategy soon.
