Obviously the above doesn't account for all customer types, i.e. a hyperscaler won't advertise, nor enterprise or Government customer's e.g. Australia Post etc. Also interesting to compare to M1.
The big issue I have with some analysis is when it states NextDC has XMW's capacity developed and ready to sell as if it's all fungible. It's not, geography matters and different cities/DC's have different fill rates.
The one shining light is that S2 should finally be open in a couple of months, which is just the market you would want to have capacity in at the moment.
That said S2 alone can't make the valuation, so I'm still pretty nervous about how the other markets are performing especially M2 given it size and investment. I was giving it the benefit of the doubt in terms of timing and people transitioning from selling M1, but now it's starting to reduce my comfort levels.
One big difference between S1/S2 & M1/M2, is that both Sydney DC's are basically the same proven location (Macquarie Park), where as the Melbourne DC's spread out.
Anyone have any insight? Anyone visited M2?
NXT Price at posting:
$6.51 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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