Thanks for the feedback Martis.I realise that there are...

Thanks for the feedback Martis.

I realise that there are substantial risks in the world, it is something that I follow regularly. I can see downside risks to our banks, as well as an economic rebalance and general slow-down.

However, I think that for those companies that struggle, there can be others that can either prosper, or at least maintain their value.

One consideration is that with ongoing currency devaluation on a world-wide basis, fair value on a nominal basis could hold up or increase.

So, whilst I agree there are issues that we face, I'm not yet certain that we have 1000 points downside risk (although accept that it is possible). This is why I've added economic indicators to my values in addition to consensus forecasts.

My thesis is that values will gradually decline for now (along with earnings), but remain somewhat stable, in a stagflation environment and with continued volatility.

Essentially this is a systematic process to determine underlying value and something that may be updated on a regular basis.