MM,
You are aware that banks - as a matter of course - raise provisions for bad debts?
So for your thesis to play out you obviously have a view that their current provisioning levels are inadequate to cope with the scenario you see unfolding.
This is despite the banks actually writing back of provisions in recent results (i.e., "we were too conservative in our assessments of the performance of our loan portfolios)"
So can I ask where you see the under-provisioning? Is it at the collective provisioning levels, or specific provisions?
As for BOQ, I wouldn't countance BOQ in the same breath as the major banks. Quality-wise, lending money to SE Queenslan property developers is not a business model that I found too mouth-watring).
To my way of thinking comparing BOQ to WBC, CBA and ANZ is akin to putting Uncle Jim's corner store next to Woolworths. (As an aside, I note that BOQ's stock price is, 6 months after its pre- profit warning level, and 25% above the price at which it raised equity).
Finally, on the sale of NAB's UK assets, I'm afraid you've misquoted the CEO. He said it wasn't saleable at a price the NAB board would sign off on. It is eminently saleable (which is why some of NAB's major insitutional shareholders are, in fact, calling for it to be sold).
Again, I'm no apologist for the banks, nor their valuations, I just always recall the words of one of the trusted mentors I have encountered over the years:
"Bearish investors get to sound smart; Bullish investors get to create wealth."
Make sure you aren't simply trying to "time the market" here, because I think that is something that very, very few people can do.
Good luck
Cam
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