of course part of my strategy is 'trying to time the mkt'.A few...

of course part of my strategy is 'trying to time the mkt'.
A few points:
A) yes i believe banks have underestimated a coming loom in bad debts. As one commentator wrote after NAB announced their 22% fall in profit after a modest jump in bad debt: 'last time NAB announced provisions for bad debt it proved to be only a quarter of the final figure'. All the banks have form in this regard. But NAB is top of list.
B) What NAB CEO effectively said is: 'I have a 2nd hand car that's worth $20,000. But i'm only being offered $7,000 so I'm not selling it'. Watch UK 'assets' drain NAB for many moons to come imo.
C) My point re BOQ is: A significant rise in bad debts can affect balance sheet substantially. i.e. A loan book of 100 billion only needs 1% to go belly-up and it impacts profits substantially. WBC went through a torrid period in early 90's. To dismiss BOQ management as total clods is an exaggeration. Are their models vastly different from the others?
I have a position and explained it... ad infinitum. Let's see how world economy pans out over next 6-18 months. If DOW et al drop 33% i can't see how our banks will be unaffected. Its never happened before. Yes, capital raisings and better risk management see our banks as stronger than in 2007, but feel a fall in SP is more likely than a rise. However, i was surprised at strength of today's unemployment figures.