It's hardly a discussion. More a sustained personal attack on my...

It's hardly a discussion. More a sustained personal attack on my acumen, or lack of, by camden... who i regard as an astute investor and a cyber friend. Hence, i'm a bit taken aback.
Camden has long made scathing remarks about (anyone) who attempts to 'time the mkt'. He says its nigh impossible to get it right. In the long run, buying and holding undervalued stks produces gains incl. divs. But 'in the long run u r also dead', and very importantly things are very different from 10 years ago. The mkt is far more volatile. My strategy with the banks is: Yes of course 'valuation matters'. My thinking is that Banks are fully valued at current SP. i believe they are unlikely to rise much from here and there is a decent probability they will fall significantly. Will it be 10%, 20% or more? Nobody can say, but to repeat... i feel a 20% fall is quite plausible and 25-30% not inconceivable. Using a 17 month time frame means the short seller wears about 6-6.5% in divs.

Lets look at NAB a bank i hold my biggest position in. 3 weeks ago it was $27.12 at the day's open. Today $23.81, a fall of $3.31 or 12.2%. Meantime it has paid holders a 90c div+fr. credits. However, cfds are unaffected by these. So someone who short sold NAB 3 weeks ago is ahead $2.41. In my case i opened my position at $25.34. remove the 90c and i'm 63c ahead/share. On the others i'm about a $1.25 down after incl divs. Should i keep holding? time will tell.