MAE 0.00% 0.0¢ marion energy limited

I know I have been called a down ramper etc.But hey I read the...

  1. 2,923 Posts.
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    I know I have been called a down ramper etc.
    But hey I read the previous financials did a few projections, and it is no surprise where they are now.
    As for the argument "Fortis Bank extended the loan therefore the assets are good and shareholders will be rich"

    That argument does not gel with me at all.

    Fortis Bank could be extending the loan purely because they see it as the best way to receive the biggest return for the bank.

    As for the companies claims of wells producing at 7 mmcf/day.
    Hmmm, very optimistic. even 2 mmcf/day seems high to me on a long term basis.
    Other similar fields produce nothing like that.
    Long term flows are far more likely to be around 0.3 - 2 mmcf with 1 mmcf/day/well average.

    If they try to produce the wells too quickly hydrates will form again, and they will be forever treating the wells.
    Probably worth doing when gas prices are high.
    In this climate they need wells that can produce with little or no intervention.

    In order to get the best possible selling price they will be very tempted to produce the well too fast.

    Unfortunately when your books look as bad as MAE's it is not unusual for the bank to step in.
    The banks advisors will start telling you, "Do it this way or we will liquidate"

    A real risk is MAE raises $20M its used to pay interest, well redevelopment, admin.. and then they sell the lot for US $50M, the debt is repayed, and shareholders are left with a relatively small amount of cash, that would no way justify the current Market Cap.
 
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