Mag squeeze

I had bit of time on my hand, and as permanent magnets are at the centre of REE price increases I used it to look at the NdFeb and REE industries. I've summarised them in the figure - left is NdFeb production and REE production quota/import/export, right is portion of total NdFeb cake that is eaten up by EVs.

Key points from the figure:
1. During 2019 China became a net REE importer, largely due to increased imports from MP.
2. NdFeb production increase has been more or less linear during the past decade.
3. REE production quota and imported materials have not been able to keep up with the NdFeb production. In 2010, approximately 20% of REE quota was used for NdFeb production, today it's a whopping ~60%.
4. The rapid uptake of EVs (right panel, which includes projection for 2021-23) is rapidly eating up a bigger and bigger portion of generated NdFeb - this is where the squeeze is happening, and is driving the current surge in REE prices.

This squeeze is made even tighter with uptake of wind power and e-bikes.. the way I see it, this squeeze will remain very very tight, and I will be very surprised if LYC is not pushed to increase the production rate fairly soon.