Maiden Dividend of 23cents probable, page-4

First 4 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
asb83

5,884 Posts.

1179

16/02/18

23:06

Post #: 31122235
Share

Originally posted by blackeyed ↑

Goldman expect a half year result of 400m revenue
According to a note out of Goldman Sachs this week, the broker has high expectations for Wednesday’s results release.
On the top line Goldman expects the fast-growing dairy company to deliver a 56% increase in sales on the prior corresponding period to NZ$400.6 million.
Whereas earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) is predicted to grow at an even quicker rate of 80% to NZ$119.6 million.
To achieve this the broker believes a2 Milk Company will achieve a gross margin of 48.5%, up from 46.5% in the first-half of FY 2017. This margin expansion is expected to be driven by a sales mix shift to higher margin infant formula.
Goldman will also be looking out for an increase in the sales generated from the mother and baby store channel. It accounted for around 8% of its infant formula sales in FY 2017, but the broker believes this could be closer to 15% in FY 2018 thanks to its increased presence and favourable regulatory changes in China.
Looking further ahead, the broker has forecast revenue and EBITDA growth of 54% and 74%, respectively, for FY 2018.
I expect this to be conservative. More likely 450 to 500. Second half is always about 15- to 20% more so we are looking at over 900m revenue for the full year.
With margins at 48.5 that 436.5 cash before tax interest and depreciation, Depreciation is nothing, interest is nothing tax will be about 20% or about 107m that leaves about 330m free and clear, earnings per share will be close to 45cents, on a growth p.e. of 28 that makes A2M priced at 12.88nz a share, (11.98 AUD). and a dividend of 23 or even 30cents for a full year is quite likely (or a big buyback).

Expand

Your calculations are way off. If you think they will make $330m NPAT, you need to get your head out of the clouds

Goldman Sachs is forecasting 48.5% gross margin. Gross margin only takes out COGS and excludes the cost of operating the business. A2M's EBITDA margin in the previous half was about 26% if I recall correctly.

A2M Price at posting: $8.59 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
7 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

The Rising Tide: How institutional adoption is shaping the future of crypto

CC9

Chariot locks in high-potential drill target at Black Mountain, one of the USA's largest lithium landholdings

Why are so many ASX explorers setting up shop in Saudi Arabia? + 8 stocks to watch

Week 34 Wrap: HotCopper's top watched; Oz banks cut saver interest; Kamala’s 28% corporate tax; AI’s back

SER

How flooding did Strategic Energy Resources a favour: Four holes down in 'redesigned' gold & copper campaign

There are more pages in this discussion • 41 more messages in this thread...

First 4 Last

Add A2M (ASX) to my watchlist

(20min delay)
Last $5.86		Change 0.090(1.56%)		Mkt cap ! $4.236B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$5.80	$5.90	$5.80	$6.580M	1.123M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	800	$5.85

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$5.88	12383	4

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	800	5.850
1	710	5.840
2	3808	5.820
5	43704	5.810
3	5239	5.800

Price($)	Vol.	No.
5.880	12383	4
5.890	5808	4
5.900	19925	7
5.910	15987	3
5.930	14162	2

Last trade - 16.10pm 26/08/2024 (20 minute delay)

A2M (ASX) Chart

Maiden Dividend of 23cents probable, page-4

The Rising Tide: How institutional adoption is shaping the future of crypto

Chariot locks in high-potential drill target at Black Mountain, one of the USA's largest lithium landholdings

Why are so many ASX explorers setting up shop in Saudi Arabia? + 8 stocks to watch

Week 34 Wrap: HotCopper's top watched; Oz banks cut saver interest; Kamala’s 28% corporate tax; AI’s back

How flooding did Strategic Energy Resources a favour: Four holes down in 'redesigned' gold & copper campaign

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

Maiden Dividend of 23cents probable, page-4

Top Stories

The Rising Tide: How institutional adoption is shaping the future of crypto

Chariot locks in high-potential drill target at Black Mountain, one of the USA's largest lithium landholdings

Why are so many ASX explorers setting up shop in Saudi Arabia? + 8 stocks to watch

Week 34 Wrap: HotCopper's top watched; Oz banks cut saver interest; Kamala’s 28% corporate tax; AI’s back

How flooding did Strategic Energy Resources a favour: Four holes down in 'redesigned' gold & copper campaign

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News