28/11/15 copyright link Nickel drops despite Chinese plan to cut output...

28/11/15

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Nickel drops despite Chinese plan to cut output by 20pc

Nickel fell for the first time in four days after smelters in China vowed to curtail output from next month, underscoring scepticism among investors on whether cutbacks by the world's biggest producer are able to make a dent in the global glut.

Eight producers, including the largest refined metal supplier Jinchuan Group and nickel pig iron maker Tsingshan Holding Group, also agreed to cut output next month by 15,000 metric tons, according to a statement circulated by the group on Wechat.

The smelters didn't say how much of China's total supply the 20 per cent reduction would account for, but their statement suggests cuts of about 120,000 tons next year, according to Celia Wang, general manager at Tianjin Zhongwei Group's investment department. The eight account for almost all of China's nickel capacity, she said. Refined nickel producers Jilin Ji En Nickel Industry and Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry also attended the meeting.

Nevertheless, three-month nickel slid 5.5 per cent to an intraday low of $US8685 a tonne. It pared losses to close 4.5 per cent weaker at $US8775.

Nickel had slumped to $US8145 on Tuesday, the lowest in more than a decade, and has been the worst performing LME base metal this year, sliding 42 per cent.

"The plan may provide support to prices in the short-term period," Peter Peng, a Beijing-based CRU analyst, said by phone. "Whether it can fuel the market for a longer period depends on the implementation."

Mainly used to make stainless steel, nickel has been weighed down by heavy oversupply and concern about demand in top consumer China that has also pressured other metals.

"I think the market is waiting for those production cuts to be realised before pricing anything in," said Eugen Weinberg, head of commodity research at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.

"The psychological stance of the market has changed. It doesn't really believe in the news until it becomes a reality, especially if the news comes from China."

"On a pure production versus pure consumption basis, the market this year isn't dramatically oversupplied," David Wilson, an analyst at Citigroup in London, said by phone. "But there is a huge amount of legacy inventory from previous years of really dramatic oversupply."

At least 800,000 tons of nickel inventories are stockpiled in warehouses around the world, Citigroup estimates. That's equal to more than a year of Chinese supply. The market is also sceptical about the cuts because producers operating at lower costs, such as MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC, may step up output, according to Malcolm Freeman, a director of West Malling, England-based brokerage Kingdom Futures Ltd.

Also hitting commodities on Friday was a slide in Chinese shares by more than 5 per cent, their biggest drop since this summer's rout.

Over the last few days, most base metals have snapped back from multi-year lows, as bearish investors cancel positions on knee-jerk reactions to reports of production cuts and possible limitations on short-selling in China.

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