Some elements on valuation
1/ Macquarie just increased their target price by 5.2 % to 46.30 $.
2/ Free cash flow yield of 6.6 % for FY 21, based on my estimate for Q4, using their way to calculate the free cash flow, which just include the dividend received for REA (rather than taking all the free cash flow of REA).
I find this level of free cash flow yield quite high, given the earning stability for their 3 main divisions (digital real estate, DJ and book publishing).
3/ Sum of the part : 50 $.
My estimate (before tax on capital gain) based on the following elements :
- EV/EBITDA of 5 x for the subscription video division (mainly Foxtel),
- EV/EBITDA of 10 x for book publishing,
- EV/EBITDA of 15 x for Dow Jones,
- 61.4 % share in REA estimated based on its market cap,
- 80 % share in Move Inc estimated at 5 bn (still the most difficult part to estimate at this stage).
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