We can only go by insiders/media/actions and gauge how credible they are when deciding fact from fiction. This is a dark art!
One thing is clear if we can derive from that Bolton expose is that there is a price on everything. I would have thought this is the how deals are negotiated on anything?
What the foreign relationship between super powers results impact on us smaller nations. Caught between a rock and a hard place. Currently the capital markets are shaking off the risks of a decoupling scenario by the sheer force of the recovery and whether it is premature in assuming no 2nd phase infection, we as investors can only manage risk by either stay in exposed to risk markets or sideline.
My gut feel tells me that without this pandemic, the deal would have move to the next phase and Trump would not be in this predicament as speculated by the polling numbers.
Just to get some objective perspective, HK which is a centre of capital channeling through their equity markets only rivaled by Japan in East Asia was speculated to be facing a rush for the exits as the rhetoric of the security laws was at tits highest recently. Subject to the large Chinese tech mitigation dual listing had very successful part listing on HKSE including this. We then hear that HSBC a UK domiciled bank decided to endorse the security laws in HK out of self interest in capitalism! Plenty of rhetoric, doom opinions further from the facts.
The optis generally speaking suggest it is China V Rest of the developed world. Is this just a negotiating ploy or are we really decoupling sending the global economic health into a downturn and Covid19 stomping that recession further into the pits of financial hell? In March we had the height of the fear of Covid19 generated economic depression followed by a recovery V shape if equity markets are forward looking against 2nd phase infection, India-China conflict, NK blowing up office and any other earth shattering events that seems to be unfolding on a weekly basis. There will likely be a crescendo of negative events before we see the risk markets shaking off each event generating fear.
Hell even economic theory is at the infancy of being re-written as all 4 corners CB printing goes Brrrrrr....
