Vermav,I can assure you I am not blase about the human cost of...

Vermav,
I can assure you I am not blase about the human cost of regime change in Iran. I worked throughout the 1978/1979 revolution in Iran (I declined to be evacuated - price of flight to Cyprus was too high), and I can certainly tell you I have never been the same since. I found everything boring afterwards: work colleauges in the UK bored me to death. I couldn't hear the sound of helicopters without my back stiffening automatically as I always associated the sound with imminent gunfire (a sort of Pavlov dog reaction - it was involuntary?) for a long time afterwards - yes, even in London. Not even firing, with ear muffs on, a GPMG (if that is what it was called - a thing on a tripod that sucked in a ribbon of bullets?) at school under army supervision could ever have prepared me for how loud some gunfire was in Teheran. I sunbathed on the roof of the Amir Kabir hotel during the Jaleh Square massacre. The gunfire went on for hours. The press (which was censored) said 103 people were killed just in that afternoon alone, but most people thought it was about 300. At another time I do not forget finding myself sprawled on the roof of my flat (near the Barghe Shah power station) when the troops guarding it opened up with a thing on a high tripod on the back of a lorry to stop all the people on the surrounding roofs from chanting "Mag bar Shah". I have no recollection at all of how I came to the position I found myself in. Anyway, I fail to see why I shouldn't profit from knowledge and why I should have to be diluted out of Mehdiabad to avoid offending most Western people's Christian sensibilities: economics is an immoral science and investing for regime change in Iran is no different from investing, say, in Thai hospitals to profit from road accident injuries (yes, it is a bit distasteful). Most people think regime change is inevitable in Iran (although most people think the timing is unpredictable - I think the nuclear issue certainly doesn't make regime change all that far away - and just because it isn't far away doesn't make it less moral). Large share price rises usually, in my experience, come from multiple risks unwinding simultaneously and so if political risk in Iran (e.g. from regime change) unwinding enables litigation risk, dilution risk and title risk to unwind simultaneously I would hope that enables our share price to rise quite a bit. The litigation risk unwinding would come from being freed of the burden to go to international arbitration. The dilution risk unwinding would come from not having to raise the $2m legal fees needed to go to arbitration. The title risk unwinding would come from proper recognition of our title to Mehdiabad and clearly would give us an option to sell out at a fair price e.g. $36m, a figure that would recognise our $18m BFS expenditure and a discovery fee in recognition of the exploration risk we allegedly took. And of course proper recognition of our title would give us the option to develop Mehdiabad on the original agreed terms.

I am aware of the irrationality of being moved by such things as Mrs Sotoudeh's daughter crying at the sight of her mother in prison only to support a military solution that results in the death of thousands of unknown Iranians to bring about her liberty. She's a lawyer who defended cases the regime didn't want her to defend. Like any human I find it hard to dismiss the emotional things near to one to hold on to the more distant often more important, but less personally relevant, things. I can't do anything about that. It is one of my faults (in common with many other people?).

As to a new regime being better than the old, I am not starry eyed about that. Persians are awful liars (even when complimenting each other) so I disagree with Professor Abbas Milani a bit on "Iran being highly suitable for democracy". Their culture is not highly suited to it, but Turkey might be the nearest thing to it. The current regime, according to Ali Nader (can't remember his name - he was on the same panel with Karim Sadjadpour on one of the video links I posted to a conference on regime change prospects) said the regime in Iran is a military dictatorship (the Revolutionary Guard control much of the economy) fronted by a sort of religious justification (the Supreme Leader). I think Persians deserve better than that. I just hope they bring it about themselves. Yes, I would love to turn the clock back to August 1978 in Iran and go back and enjoy a decent kebab barg with bottle of Shams beer, but it isn't going to happen. No, all wasn't well even then - I remember a taxi driver showing me the cigarette burns on his arm, which he said was from the SAVAK (secret police). However, the Iranian Govt. owes us money so I am routing for regime change by whatever means. And yes, our Board drives me nuts : Jordinson may know about Iranian tectonic plates, but the prospects for regime change aren't totally unrelated to the nuclear issue, and that alone requires an understanding of THREE countries' politics - it is bad enough to cope with one, but three is a nightmare. Our Board seem to be operating outside their circle of competence on Iran, although I expect Dr. Badawi understands Iran well. Sorry I'll have to leave it there. It is a rather muddled collection of thoughts: I don't want to give up a stake in Mehdiabad for Wonarah without a making a gain and our Board is being very sly about this, IMO. A dilutionary part disposal via a takeover does not require justification but a full trade sale of Mehdiabad would? No, I am not an immoral investor: your gripe is with the science of economics. I hope that helps.