The Chinese response to the World Trade Organization (WTO) ruling spells more bad news for Lynas because they are taking supply risk off the table. Diversification of supply, not cheaper pricing, is what Lynas has going for it. Now the Chinese are being good world citizens who can assure supply.
At the same time they are ramping up supply and driving prices down. Even though Chinese exports in 2014 rose by 23.5% from 2013, the total export value in the whole year actually decreased by 35.5% to $374.691 million. The squeezing out of competition will continue unabated. China’s exports in December alone rose 12 % to 2,902 tons rare earth from a year earlier and this month will see a further increase.
Make that 60% chance of bankruptcy
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