Make that 60% chance of bankruptcy, page-3

Lol, too funny, the Chinese RE quota scam 2007/2010 will ensure they carry "supply risk"for every purchasing officer for the next decade at least. Go ask WR Grace, let alone the Japanese.

If you want to understand China's LT RE objectives perhaps start with a reasonable summary:
http://threeconsulting.com/pdfs/China-rare-earth-strategyin-wHighlights-.pdf
BTW, that piece draws from the Chinese White Paper, short summation: http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2012/08/16/chinas-white-paper-on-rare-earths/
http://english.gov.cn/archive/white_paper/2014/08/23/content_281474983043156.htm

Then overlay recent history such as ROW innovation in phosphors/NdFeB, and substitutions elsewhere, plus Chinese amalgamation (supply reduction) & vertical integration.

If you can understand supply security you would understand a re-emerging ROW market is based on ALTERNATE supply, NOT cheap Chinese RE.

If you can understand Chinese LT RE objectives it is NOT monopoly supply of a cheap commodity but value add to the point of developing the innovative skills present ROW.

Chinese ignorance of the impacts of free movement of capital, speculation, resulted in their 2010 scam doing massive damage to their LT RE strategy. Deng must have been frothing in his grave.

Rather bizarrely, China's LT objective, Western innovative skill, is slowly revitalising the market, at the same time China's glacial efforts to contain & control the gross overcapacity, that existed even as they tried to con the West they were "running out", seems to be coming to conclusion.

That ROW innovation to some degree is based on the security of alternate supply, could say China's objectives are well served by Lynas success, Moly less so for lack of downstream engagement. Not a concept that could be embraced here I'm sure, lol.

Perhaps 2015 will finally add some clarity to the bigger picture, and spare us the ridiculous knee jerk reactions to individual pieces of the puzzle.