Make them pay!, page-1228

You are 100% correct that nobody has a clue of the results yet. What is unusual is the downward movement since the spud was announced. The more normal pattern is s/p moves up towards spud date, then there is always the group that sells the spud, then a move up till a trading halt is announced. The last small company involved in a NWS drilling was CUE with Ironbark, off the cuff I think the shares move up about 50% till the trading halt. This well had only a 10% chance of success whereas Pavo has 34% which is quite high for a wildcat. Dianna's post states an analyst value of 40c for CVN on Dorado alone, bet that is most likely way out of date. Taking the best numbers of 20000 BOPD and a slight premium on Brent you come up with the mind boggling number of A$985m/year to CVN. While shorters ect have done a great job in causing panic selling , I bet there are some smart Asian investors looking at those numbers and prepared to but CVN in the bottom of the drawer. A sell off on a Pavo duster might give them a chance to grab CVN on the cheap. Needless to say the whole situation totally changes if that 34% chance proves correct.