CVN 5.88% 16.0¢ carnarvon energy limited

Make them pay!, page-507

  1. 19,172 Posts.
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    Fund managers and Instos will tell you that there are 3 choices with trading: Buy, Sell and Hold.

    We all know however, that there are really only 2.
    In other words, at current prices, which way do you think the share price will go? Up....you buy. Down....you sell.
    The other is just Hold/Shmoldrolleyes.png.

    So, let's look at this sensibly and to make it more relevant, think of Vinva simply as someone like you or me. We'll call him Dick Vinva.

    Research points:

    1) CVN has over $100,000,000 cash.....and no debt.
    2) In around 11 months, CVN is likely to be participating in 1 or 2 exploration wells with targets of hundreds of millions of barrels of oil.
    3) We've already made the 4th biggest oil discovery in Australia in the last 30 years.
    4) We will be generating an embarrassing amount of profit from said discovery in a couple of years.
    5) Oil price temporarily requires a nose peg but will inevitably bounce back.
    6) Covid has created an artificially negative environment, but will inevitably return to 'normal'.
    7) Other stunning assets at various stages of development in CVN's portfolio.
    8) Our share price has ALREADY been belted down from ~70c to 20c. A staggering 72% discount.

    So with all that known and at 20c, what do you decide to do?

    All things considered above, you would probably pull out your wallet with 'risk' obviously to the upside and buy....say....100,000 shares?

    Not Dick.

    Dick bets 62,000,000 shares that the share price from 20c.......will go down.

    In the now famous words from that chick on Married At First Sight....."I call BS on that"
 
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