From The Australian Newspaper - Business September 22, 2008 Iron...

From The Australian Newspaper - Business

September 22, 2008

Iron ore, coal earnings to soar to new levels: Abare

The value of Australia's commodity exports is expected to increase this year, according to official estimates issued today. SEPT 22 08.

World economic growth will continue at a healthy clip in 2008 and 2009, fuelling demand for Australia's key commodities, particularly iron ore and coal, and underpinning a massive surge in exports this fiscal year, the government's chief commodities forecaster, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, said.

The value of commodity exports from Australia will rise 44 per cent on year to a record $213.68 billion this fiscal year ending June 30, 2009, from a revised $148.67 billion for last fiscal year, Abare said in its quarterly outlook publication.

Abare is more optimistic than in June, when it forecast commodities export growth this fiscal year at 40 per cent on-year.

Mineral resources - including mineral and energy products - will make up the lion's share of export growth, with the value of mineral exports tipped to surge 53 per cent on-year in 2008-09, to $179.74 billion, from a previous estimate of 48 per cent on-year growth.

“The short-term prospects for energy and mineral commodities remain positive, supported by continued demand growth and supply-side constraints,” Phillip Glyde, Abare's executive director, said in a statement.

Iron ore export earnings are set to climb 92 per cent on the back of rising production from development projects and higher prices.

Abare expects the nation’s iron ore export earnings to rise to about $39 billion in fiscal 2009, up from $20.3 billion in fiscal 2008.

The forecaster said China's iron ore imports are forecast to rise by 16 per cent in 2008 to 445 million tonnes and by another 10 per cent to about 490 million tonnes in 2009.