LYC lynas rare earths limited

In the petroleum industry they have been cracking for almost 50...

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    In the petroleum industry they have been cracking for almost 50 years. Yet every new tower is piloted first then slowly brought on line. KAL deliberately used older C&L technology which they told us this guaranteed quick predictable results. It was about 4 X over budget. It was suppose to supply Lamp Texas and have capacity left over to do tolling processing. hard to know just how late it is because it is still running at a fraction of what it is suppose to produce.
    I have years of experience designing large equipment. and about 20 years as a manger and project leader for things like this. I only was involved in the electronics for the control side for Petro chemical industry. But I saw how even with very careful planning and control how large projects never get close to what they hope. In fact it is early optimism Like AL always shows that leads to poor project management and therefor they miss all expectations. You are welcome to be an optimist that is your right. I will continue to be very pessimistic with my investments 40 ~ 50 years ago I was optimistic and had a couple of really big winners, one did 4 X in a year. but my total portfolio did not do well After I started following traditional rules and not being as optimistic I have not had only one investment grow even 2 X in a year. Only exception Was MCP It was more luck that I got in at IPO and out within 5% of high. Yet for many years the total annualized gain on my entire portfolio is much higher than when I chased high fliers.

    Lynas has not demonstrated any production increase since Q1 2018 . Since late 2018 they have talked a lot about how much they are going to ramp up but have not produced. After being very disappointed in NEXT I want to see a good increase in out put Absolutly not AL telling me it will be great, or how even though they missed goals they did great for a week or a month. About a year ago AL told us they would have a nice ramp up in NdPrO with a 10,5 KT rate at end of CY 2024. I will admit there has been problems, but AL took over in 2014 at this point should they not be able to plan for some problems? Take a look at this chart which is entirely from Lynas's Q repots and explain to me why you think the future will be better when out put stay consistently below what we were told for NEXT. I will believe it when I see it! My prediction for Q1 2025 revenue is still AUD 140M My predictions for last 2 years have all been within 8% usually high. I have a good track record, but everyone is wrong once in a while we will see in about a month. Tell me after looking at this chart why you think Lynas is about to be much better. The 4 Q running averages says a lot more than Q production. 12 years and below original name plate. Only once 4 q average above name plate, Q1 2024, it was 1646.2 tons Name 1500 T Next is 1800 T so not even half way to NEXT. Q4 2024, 1413.7 T. i have tried to add data labels but they run into each other. Unreadable

    These are production numbers so it is all that was produced regardless of if it was sold or went into Finished Goods inventory

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6455/6455854-e8ee153d2f9b1f69416d3eb3b7ce2f2c.jpg




 
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