APT 0.00% $66.47 afterpay limited

Making sense of the situation

  1. 5,511 Posts.
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    While I have a solid understanding of economics and finance I must admit accounting isn't my strong suit so I'm hoping to get some input from people smarter than me.

    Here is the situation from my perspective:

    Short-term CovID-19 impact
    Afterpay will likely see a spike in consumers asking to delay payments as well as an increase in bad debt charges. This should be short lived as we see customers still stuck with purchases made over the last few weeks. Afterpay's credit model will start cutting people off from credit or lowering their limit. This isn't just for people who are requesting hardship but Afterpay's quantitative credit models would be much smarter than that and cut.

    So in the short term we should see a spike in bad debt as well as a large decline in volume as people don't/can't shop.

    The question I have for accountants is this: Could Afterpay just weather the storm, take the bad debt charge that's coming, accept the much lower volume of transactions? Personally I don't see why not. Most of their costs were associated with expansions so could they just wind that back, reduce advertising to a minimum and just absorb any negative cash flow from operating expenses (since they are well capitalised).

    I feel like I'm missing something because there seem to be a lot of people suggesting Afterpay will go under. I haven't yet seen anyone give a good analysis as to why this would be the case. What is it that's the issue? Too great operating expenses? Not capitalised well enough? (unlikely with the recent capital injection)?

    Any objective analysis would be greatly appreciated.

    Cheers.
 
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