agree to disagree. It won’t be a 10B stock until the market recovers. The question is: when the index once again hits 7000+ what will APT be like compared to other stocks? In a prolonged recession, APT will drop further, but most if not all competitors will go out of business. No other competitors are going to be able to raise capital for a long time right now, so actually this will dramatically decrease long term competition, amplifying first mover advantage.
Stuff suffers in depressions, everyone gets that. This is about risk transfer. When you take out a loan, with long duration, you are transferring some of that business risk to your lender. This has been the way since forever. Up until now, there has not been a proven business model, which makes money in the short term and does not have that long-dated risk. I think what we will see, is that this is a fundamentally superior business model. Afterpay can be nimble here and do all the things other posters have described, whereas other lenders cannot- they just can’t take any risk right now.
Anyway the truth is that no one knows. We will all find out, one way or another.
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