@StefanF You prefaced this by asking for the opinions of people smarter than you. While I don't satisfy that criterion, I'll proffer my views.
I agree with you. Unless something really bizarre occurs, APT will not go bankrupt. The have a significant cash buffer and access to cheap loan warehouse facilities. Accordingly, they should be fine from a cashflow perspective.
However, that's not really the issue here, in my view. Rather, the issue is what the market will be willing to pay for this company once the dust settles and the fragility of its business model has been exposed. its basically a great business during the boom times when both spending and consumer confidence is high. However, it is the complete opposite when times are bad. Sales will plummet and bad debts will skyrocket, pushing them further and further away from any hope of profitability. On that basis, what is this thing really worth? $1 billion? Maybe. But probably not much more IMHO.
