making sense

I value to contributions of hotcopper members posting information, sourced from newspapers and phone conversations with EWC directors, concerning EWCs projects. It seems to me, that, in the absence of EWC making relevant ASX announcements, this is the best we can do. By the way, the half yearly report, due by 26 February, 2010, will provide us not only with a financial account of EWCs operations but also with an update on its major projects by way of a directors report. Perhaps Stewart Elliott has taken the strong criticism voiced by shareholders at the 2009 AGM on board and will be more forthcoming with pertinent updates concerning major projects contained in this half yearly report.

In the absence of announcements we are left in the dark, but it does not mean that we cannot use this forum to explore likely scenarios. This is one scenario I can come up with that may make sense of the protracted negotiations. EWC is currently negotiating two different proposals (expansion of 120MW for the existing power station and 2-5mtpa LNG facility) with 2 powerful Indonesian enterprises/regulators (PLN and BPMigas). Both EWC proposals source their energy requirements from one and the same gas resource, namely the Sengkang gas field. While the electricity production/energy shortage facing Indonesia is acute, EWC may find itself as the pawn in the powerplay of PLN and BPMigas which may want to extract more favourable conditions from EWC prior to agreeing to sign a power purchase agreement and/or approve the POD for the LNG project. For example PLN says to EWC: agree to our price and the gas supply for so many years or otherwise you may face delays in gaining approval for the LNG plant, while BPMigas says: unless you can guarantee the gas supply for the expanded power station (via a PPA), we will not approve your POD. In short, while EWC has the gas resources, PLN and BPMigas have the power to frustrate EWCs ambitions. Nevertheless, it is my opinion, that these competing business interests will be able to reconciled during the next 6 months and that, once a PPA has been signed with PLN, BPMigas will approve the POD some time later.

Consequently it is important how we perceive management: they are not fools, but are working hard for the benefit of shareholders to solve some major hurdles, not purposely torturing us with the lack of information based on a whim.