Originally posted by ContraryJ
Why do you continue to try to drive wedges between opposing views. You seem incapable of seeing an opposing view as just an opposing view. You resort to name calling and worse with anyone one that does not support your view. A true indication of someone with a closed mind and lots of prejudices. You remind me of a bully on a school playground. I think Lynas has a bright future. I think the next 1 to 2 years could be very rough because of things beyond their control. Not only do you resort to name calling when I say this you look for data like comparing 2017 to 2018 REO prices that let you misrepresent what is going on. Like saying REO prices are going up when every site that post prices clearly show them going down since March. I still do not know if you were incapable of seeing what you were doing because you were so desperate to show positive REO price movement. Or were out to deceive many on this board and clearly new what you were doing.
NdPr China Domestic Price (VAT excluded)
Q4 FY17
36.5 USD/kg
vs
Q4 FY18
44.2 USD/kg
+7.7 USD/kg
=
21% appreciation NdPr values averaged over Q4 YoY.
Not so hard really.
https://www.lynascorp.com/Shared Do...180720 Quarterly Report June 2018 1822050.pdf
With a 50% increase in sales volumes to Japan, combination increase in mkt share & underlying demand, it is a reasonable assumption Lynas would have realised greater than 21% appreciation in av NdPr sales values given RfS production 1447t, less 100t retained Q4 18, vs 1343t Q4 17.
The same Q comparison ASP:
Q4 FY17
A$15.9/kg
vs
Q4 FY18
A$21.3/kg
+A$5.4/kg
=
34% appreciation ASP averaged over Q4 YoY.
With Chinese exports basically static H1 YoY:
"China's cumulative exports of rare earths from January to June were 2,6297.4 tons, a decrease of 0.33%."
They realised a 26% increase in total sales value:
"From January to June, China exported 256.7 million US dollars, up 26% year-on-year."
http://newmat.chinaiol.com/xtcl/s/0713/87198776.html
Based on Lynas reported sales values YoY it should not be so difficult to understand price appreciation YoY had a far greater impact on Chinese export revenues jumping 26% H1 rather than any vague guess at a shift in sales mix.
(20min delay)