malaysia on the brink sell now

The very unsophisticated handling of an Indian led march on 25 November in KL and the overreaction by the Muslim government of Malaysia has created a tinder box dry environment where the first side to fire will bring the house down.

Malaysian counter insurgency paras are already believed to be planning a campaign against the Indians and this cold be a number of things. This is the country in which Lt.Gen. Peter Walls tested his "winning the hearts and minds" strategy by sending in under deep cover, trained operatives in busy areas to plant explosives then blaming it on the communists.

Unfortunately although it worked in early Malaya it failed dismally in South Africa and Zimbabwe and blew up in his face there.

With both sides calling the other terrorist (Malaysia is where Bali Bomber and mastermind on the run Noordin Top trained and originated from with government blessing), it would appear that the stakes are high and the government does not give a hoot. It is religious and Islam must prevail over infidels.

The Tamils are prepared for a war of attrition. They claim to have endured suffering andd being marginalised for being non Muslims for over 5 decades.

In 1969 it was the Chinese the Maly Muslims targetted and used the communist bogey then. The Tamils though are a different kettle of fish. This is a new and bolder generation with heroes in the Tamil Tiger movement.

The situation is so grave that Lee Kuan Yew flew recently to India to ask LK Advani the Hindu nationalist and religious supremo to prevail on the Indians who feel they have nothing to lose in Malaysia.

In fact it is widely being reported that Singapore has drawn up contingency plans to intervene if it comes to that for their own survival.

Both Malaysia and Singapore have lots to lose with irrepairable damage to their respective economies. The immediate impact will be a fall in the Straits Times Index as well as the currencies of both countries.

My recommendation is to sell down both KL and Singapore now. It will be too late if a device or even a fire cracker explodes above the expected frequency dynamic range.

Take out puts on everything out of KL and just the STI in Singapore.

Moved from the "Asia" forum. Original message number: 6