it may be happening quicker than expected....

it may be happening quicker than expected.

http://az-china.com/black-china-blog/aluminium/malaysia-does-an-indonesia/

Malaysian local newspaper Utusan Malaysia is reporting that the Malaysian government has ordered a halt to mining and export of bauxite from Kuantan.
The decision was reportedly made last week, and calls for a “temporary” ban, following increased complaints from local residents.
according to a separate report, the government was researching alternative methods of getting the ore to the port. Complainants said that increasing demand for bauxite from China had led to both illegal mining and illegal trucking.
it is not clear from the article when the ban comes into effect, or for how long the ban will remain in force. One thing is clear to me from my visits to Kuantan – the ban will be enforced. Those trucks won’t be able to sneak through to the port without the townsfolk noticing and alerting authorities.
On the other hand, those exports have been good to the Malaysian economy, and good for jobs in the Kuantan area. While some residents may celebrate a win, others will no doubt protest the ban.
if this ban holds for anything more than about 6 months, it will start to impact China’s aluminium industry. Even if the cutbacks in smelting hold (a big if) China will still produce at least 30 million tonnes of aluminium in 2016. A quick back-of-envelope calculation says that China will still need to import at least 30 million tonnes of bauxite, and potentially much more. With Malaysia contributing at least 20 million tonnes in 2015, it is a big hole in the supply chain. Time to buy shares in Australian bauxite companies?