As a long time Lynas shareholder I feel we've seen this before in 2018 and I don't like it one bit.
Political uncertainty is not good for the company. And the fact no one party has won majority its impossible to tell what deals will be done and promises made to form a majority coalition government comprised of minor parties.
The problem for Lynas is two fold.
1) political inaction comes first. The last political decision issued by the atomic energy licencing board requires Lynas to comply with 4 points.
1. Lynas to begin the process of developing the Permanent Disposal Facility (PDF)
within the first year from the date of approval of the licence.
2. Lynas must submit a work development plan for the construction of the PDF and
report on its development status as determined by the Malaysian Atomic Energy
Licensing Board (AELB).
3. Lynas must ensure that the Cracking and Leaching plant outside Malaysia is in
operation before July 2023. After that period, Lynas will no longer be allowed to import
raw materials containing Naturally Occurring Radioactive Material (NORM) into Malaysia.
4. Holding of the financial deposit will be maintained for compliance with the relevant
licence conditions
Everything is sorted except point 3. Should there be any delaying in getting crack and leeching commissioned in Kalgoorlie by July 2023. Then expect production and cash-flow to abruptly halt on August 1st 2023 until a new operating licence agreement can be negotiated. If that does eventuate I can seem LAMP being closed for at least month, and there is no guarantee any new licence conditions wont be less favorable.
2) Should Lynas's political opponents get back into government (the DAP party) then we could be in for a rough ride. Be very wary of the DAP party. As they previously exploited licences for WLP and NUF in a bid to close LAMP down in 2018, while Yeo Bee Yin was MESTECC (minster of Energy Sicence Technology Environment Climate Change). Thankfully I believe Yeo Bee Yin is no longer in politics (hopefully she doesn't make a re emergence).
Link to ABC article on the election.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-20/malaysia-faces-hung-parliament-in-tight-election-race/101675612
(20min delay)