Jan, Lynas contracts are not "fixed" to published basket price and it's rather arbitrary anyhow:
"The table below shows the average annual price for a 'standard 99% purity of individual elements and for the generic composite of Rare earths equivalent to the Rare Earths distribution at Mt Weld. Prices are quoted in US$/kg on an FOB China basis. Note that higher purity oxides and other value added properties will attract higher prices than those shown."
Note the inverse would equally apply: "lower purity oxides and other lower value properties will attract lower prices than those shown."
Note from Metal Pages: "Prices are indicative, and based in warehouse Rotterdam duty unpaid unless otherwise stated."
Unless your thinking Japanese, Asian & US sales go thru a Rotterdam W/house Metal Pages prices can only represent a PORTION of the sales recorded under "Others" which is 5% of global and <15% ROW. IMO Metal Pages traffic would be 3/5tpa and generally smaller volume sales into EU, hardly representative of the larger market and certainly not an indicator that any Purchasing Mgr that values his job is going to base a contract on.
Regardless, why would Molymess be selling Q4 at an average of $19kg when their "basket" is $26kg? Their business plan sux but they are not that stupid.
Will be interesting to see if the Chinese trading platform, supposedly starting about now, will publish prices internal/external in the future given the current murky arrangements thru third party facilitators, the middle supply chain and of course Alibaba, lol.
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