Malcy on FAR/CNE, page-6

Just posted.

I promised a bit more on Senegal after input from down under but in truth there is not much to add to what I mentioned yesterday. Although the timing caught the participants a bit by surprise the ‘give away’ price accepted by COP was equally odd. It doesnt surprise me too much as once a major has decided to ‘out’ something timing is usually more important than value. Where COP will look even more foolish is when commerciality is declared, fairly soon I think, and when one or more of the other parties increase their resource estimates, also fairly soon. For Cairn who have, how you say, been quite slow off the mark to appreciate value here, they will lose operatorship to WPL but gain as the development gets going much more quickly. For Far, still massively geared to the discovery, the upside despite being dented yesterday still looks huge. They are fully funded for anything that can be thrown at them, two wells this year perhaps and plenty of technical and administrative work to do into the bargain. Despite being caught by surprise I still think upside in Far can be well above 25c a share.