Mali Political Situation, page-84

My personal opinion,

The most recent coup is either because Goita saw the cabinet reshuffle as eroding his power or his designs on keeping power. Or he saw the cabinet reshuffle as an attempt to undermine the planned democratic elections, and of course it could be some mixture of both. I think this is impossible to know. Its Africa after all, and I would think that he needs to maintain some semblance of power to ensure its not knives in his own back. Shit, the prime minister could have just been sniffing round Goilta's wife or something for all we know.

Hell, maybe the French aren't sure either, so Macron flings a shot across his bow and basically says you run the elections or we pull the French soldiers and sanction you then leave you to your own devices. For me this is unrealistic, allowing Mali to effectively implode does no favours for anyone. Not only Mali but for the neighbouring countries also, this unrest in north is not confined to Mali by any means. At the moment Goita is still essentially backed by France, albeit maybe with a shorter leash. You let Mali go to shit then two years down the track the French are trying to sort the same issues, except now its on the border with the Ivory Coast, not up in northern Mali.

I'm not too concerned by all this at the moment, Goita still seems to be saying he's going to stick the transitional plan. I would think a key indicator of his own intentions will be whether he declares himself as a candidate in the elections. If he does I would be concerned, as it would undermine the legitimacy of the process from the get go.

Until then, he's put in another leader and the news cycle will move on as it always does. As far as I can figure there doesn't seem to be civil unrest a part from the issues in the north that were already present. Things will die down and then inevitably flare up to some degree towards the end of the year when it starts to get close to the election time. Meanwhile the machinery is still spitting gold out.