From what I can gather, the current (soon to be former?) President and PM were installed to head up a transitional government, with a view to holding ostensibly democratic elections in early 2022 with the support of Mali's military. As recently as last month, the government still had the military's support. This evaporated a couple of weeks ago during a cabinet reshuffle, where two military leaders were removed in response to criticisms regarding the military's prominent role in Mali's government, leading to the current situation.
Last time, it took just over a month to sort out (coup happened 18 August, new government sworn in 25 September).
As for the current impasse? I don't think it'll drag out for too long, mainly because the President and PM were installed by the very same military that's just detained them. It'll probably just be a case of "please explain", then the 14 May cabinet shuffle will be undone and things will continue on as planned.
Assuming this current impasse is resolved in a timely manner, the next key date for Mali will be the election due around March 2022, viz. 18 months after the current government was installed. I can see the elections triggering a new wave of instability, with potential buying opportunities as a result.
Looking at the bigger picture, gold doesn't care one iota about who's running the country in which it's located. The gold isn't going anywhere until someone digs it out of the ground and sells it. Meanwhile, the government (military or civilian) usually wants to keep at least some of its citizens sweet. Civil unrest and the occasional insurrection are part of the cost of doing business in Africa. That's why FFX trades at such a steep discount to similar miners operating in jurisdictions such as Australia or Canada, and anyone looking for divvies is - with the greatest respect - a dreamer.
That said, with high risk comes high reward. FFX has the right people to manage this risk by working with it rather than against it. Morila is a classic example of this: almost every employee and/or contractor is a Malian national. Keeping locals employed and ensuring that Mali gets its cut of Morila's profits will go a long way to winning the hearts and minds of whoever is running the show this week (elected or otherwise).
tl;dr: Mali's current political situation is BAU. FFX knows it. African resource stocks aren't for everyone.
