man made mutant flu virus, page-5

Grogdero

Its important to understand that Biota's drugs are Antivirals, not Vaccines.

Vaccines are taken pre-emptively and usually only by those "at risk" in the community (young, sick and aged). When a new influenza or mutation is discovered, vaccines typically are of no protection and there can be 6 months to a year before the next season's vaccine can be developed to offer any protection.

Antivirals are taken (typically) once the flu is contracted.

Potentially, more people could be treated (with antivirals) as a result of catching the flu as are immunised (with vaccines).

Seasonal influenza kills an estimated 36000 people in the United States each year!!!

Whenever there is a potential Pandemic (3 times in the last 6 years), the Biota SP has reacted. Two years ago, it hit $3.60.

In relation to influenza, Biota has received a $US231m grant (funded in stages) to commercialise its next generation influenza drug in the USA - Laninamivir.

Biota has an important unrelated drug (BTA798) potentially ready for Phase III trials (subject to results due in the next 3 months or so). This drug in itself is a potential blockbuster and another gamechanger for Biota.

Entry price is bloody attractive. Look back at SP run in April 2009 to see the potential if indeed things escalate in terms of serious concern over the chance of a new pandemic. Still a chance this could be a false concern, but to compensate for all this, the pipeline and activity over the next 3-6 months is exciting, regardless of a near term pandemic.