MPO molopo energy limited

I can understand where this frustration comes from... no-one is...

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    I can understand where this frustration comes from... no-one is as frustrated as I am with the current share price than I am, and I think expectations were that when the new board was voted in, that the market would suddenly realise what a bargain it was, and send the share price higher.

    But it didn't happen like that...

    First we had supporters of the previous board, as well as the board themselves selling out.... this put a fair bit of early pressure on the share price. Then, we had more macro environment events that have sent most energy stocks lower. On top of this we have had the Legacy Share Price fall in line with the general market. Legacy shares effectively makes up about 35% of MPO's current market value. So a movement in the legacy share price will have a pretty significant impact on MPO's share price. Finally recently we have had some shorting, as well as selling due to the poor sentiment, and also tax loss selling.

    So that has seen the share price fall from when management took over at 1.075 to a low of 72.5c and now trading around 78c.

    Now honestly, this frustrates the hell out of me, but I am a completely bemused by all this talk of management being inexperienced and out of their depth.... seriously, they have been in control for 4 and a half months, you can't expect them to have miraculously waved a magic wand and make the share price go higher.

    First off, the website.... really, is this such an issue??? Does the website actually bring in income? No. Should it be a priority in my opinion... not really. I have been holding MPO for a number of years now and I reckon I have visited the website maybe twice in that time, and not at all in the last couple years. All the information I need is in past company announcements available online through asx, or my online broker. I can assure you that any decent sized entity taking a position would be relying on a lot more research than perusing their website. Instead of wasting time on the website, I would much prefer that management focus on developing projects, as well as pursuing acquisitions and divestments.

    Which brings me to my next point... no news does not mean no action. I am sure that management are not sitting around twiddling their thumbs at the moment. They will be working on a number of things, including the QLD CSG sale, potential acquisitions, and planning upcoming drilling programs. But it is very frustrating that we are currently in the dark on timelines for when things will happen. I agree that this needs to be improved... but also we need to look at the big picture. The board has come in at a time when QLD has been flooding, and Canada was in winter / spring break up. So that curtails any actual operations that can be performed until roughly the start of June in my books. Also with wolfcamp, they need to identify drilling targets... not just go out and drill anywhere and cross the fingers. Hopefully if shareholders do keep asking, we will get a bit better timetable for operations to be announced. Remember though that with acquisitions and divestments, they won't announce anything until it is a done deal.

    I do think to be fair to the new board, they have to be given at least until 30 June 2012 to show their worth. I understand the expectation was for the share price to be a lot higher than this after the new board took over, but we just need to be patient and give them a chance to put some runs on the board. For example...I don't want to see a firesale of the QLD CSG assets just so they can announce something about it. I want a good financial return on that asset, that I know when it happens, will mean the share price has to move accordingly.

    I am pretty happy with the way they are running the buyback at the moment as well. Buying back shares at these levels is a great result for us shareholders. It is the one positive about the share price being where it is at the moment. I don't see a need for them to buy the shares back any harder. Just keep chipping away at them while they can, because one day the share price will turn around... the sell side is already starting to look a lot more exhausted... there has been some pretty concerted selling going on ever since February... this can't go on forever. Also I am sure some holders like me, have been using these lower prices as a chance to top up their holdings... perfect situation to buy in gloom, to hopefully later sell in boom! Just have to be patient and wait for the market to catch up to the underlying value. It sure is frustrating waiting for the spark to make it get back to decent levels again, but I think if there is one thing in common with all the people holding MPO, it is the knowledge that with a cash backing of roughly 65-70c/share, that QLD CSG, Bakken, Wolfcamp, South Africa, and Canadian Shale are worth a lot more than 10c/share (or $25m).

    That's enough from me.... keep your chins up, we will have our day, if you look back on the charts over they last few years you will see that when MPO does move up, it usually does it hard and fast.... we look to have found a bottom in the last week or so, so maybe we are on the way back now. Who knows!

    Finally... found this article interesting, have copied part relevant to legacy, as well as the link... looks like a similar story to MPO with all the old board selling out... looks good for a bounce in the Legacy price, and thus the MPO price.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/eric-nuttall-looking-for-oil-and-gas-values-not-value-traps-2011-6

    EN: Well, we could walk through some of my top holdings. That's probably the best way to understand my style.

    TER: Sure.

    EN: In terms of size, my largest current position is Legacy Oil & Gas Inc. (TSX:LEG). It's a $2 billion-market cap light oil company, and it's a case study of how we try to look at things differently. There was a management change within a major shareholder, Fidelity Investments, and the manager had to blow out 18 million shares. That took the share price from $17.50 down to around $11.50; not for any fundamental reason—it was due to fund flow. The stock trades at around $12 today, but I was aggressively buying at around $12.50 and was buying every share I could at around $11.50.

    When I started buying LEG, I was paying the lowest multiple of price-to-cash flow in its corporate history. and I thought my downside was limited to commodity and market risk. I knew the company had very significant exposure to several emerging plays, including the Spearfish in North Dakota and the Alberta Bakken, which is an emerging tight oil play. So, I paid a very low multiple and got all of the upside free. I could see the stock at $16. So, while a 33% upside from today's level doesn't sound super sexy, it's decent; and I think my downside risk is very low. The company is managed by, in my opinion, one of the best light oil teams in the business, which is comprised of proven value creators; and the balance sheet is very clean.

    TER: I note the company went from operations cash flow of $26.3M in Q110 all the way up to $43.9M in Q111. Can that kind of growth continue?

    EN: Yes, I'm looking for more than $300M cash flow in 2012. That would put the company at 6.7x cash flow today, and I think it can grow production by 15%. Legacy's about 80% levered to the price of light oil. It's got all of the different aspects I look for.

    Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/eric-nuttall-looking-for-oil-and-gas-values-not-value-traps-2011-6#ixzz1QoYOW9UI
 
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