HZN 2.63% 19.5¢ horizon oil limited

Management and Value Creation. More to come?, page-7

  1. 9,081 Posts.
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    "In the unlikely event (this is my view and others clearly disagree) that they intend to squeeze us out, it will have to be north of $0.061, so even in a worst case senario there is at least some reasonable upside from here."

    Agree GDN.
    I'm assuming the IMC financing is a done deal, so already looking at the trading opportunity of the current 4.5-4.6c entry on offer.
    6.1c would be a 35% gain from current (4.5c) levels, 5.5c ~20% gain.
    I think ~5.5c sp is achievable by year end assuming an EGM yes vote (removes uncertainty), no new news, av USD50 oil price received, and 5.5c is a comfortable margin below IMC's control enhancing 6.1c options.

    As for IMC's intentions, I think their av entry is 25c going by Mongy's figures, which could reduce to ~19c with the options. Once/if they exercise the options they go to 43%, and would need 18months of (3% creep/6 months) to get outright control at 50+%, if they wanted to.
    Question is, whats the best path for IMC to get their money back, ie exit/sale at 20cps+ ?
    Given their high entry, one could argue they have no choice but to work with HZN management over the long term to realise value in the PNG assets.
 
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