Any theories on who is selling healthy volumes of shares at a...

Any theories on who is selling healthy volumes of shares at a 10% and more discount to takeover price? Is it the insider traders who are cashing in now for the profits rather than wait a few weeks? (And selling back to the takeover mob or their affiliates as a thank you for the heads up?) . Or is it just the market tipping a 10% chance that the deal will fall through? Will the ASX follow up on their speeding ticket and investigate who was in the know, and how they got the info? Of course they won't.