GregThank you :)Yes, I did - last week. The explanation given...

Greg

Thank you :)

Yes, I did - last week. The explanation given did not add much but in my opinion downplayed the significance of the announcement about review of the mine plan. Also discussed with three analysts who have studied CGT. Two were mildly negative and one was mildly positive. My impression was the two negative (mainly didn't like bad surprise( were not going to stick neck out and say 'buy' now - I saw this as bullish because their followers would sell like cattle. But noted to watch if volume got really big (i.e. many of top 20/insiders selling) which it hasn't.

My analysis is simple:

1. Nobody likes to lose money, but you can't lose more than $ invested and in this case you are buying at a fraction of NTA, maybe 25-50% of resale value. So in wash-up, probably couldn't lose even the amount invested, i.e. there are hard assets owned by CGT including all the assets CGT owned before it bought from Lihir. No debt is a big tick too on loss minimization.

2. If this baby actually starts producing gold starting from Mako Lode at $750/oz then 50k oz pa might be conservative - the mill and plant are set up for multiples of that. At $1700+ gold, the upside is just enormous - dollars ps.

So investing now is a kind of bet paying 10-1 or 20-1 atm on CGT being able to get profitable gold out of Ballarat. A gamble, a risk yes - but too good odds to say no to. Yes, wait and see is an option too and you can always invest later when more is known. I like the odds because if anyone will ever master Victoria's quartz pods with modern mining, CGT will.

The buying was dismal today - sellers in ascendancy.
Just the sort of miserable mood that can be a bottom. I bought more at 9.8c and felt sick - seemed sure to gap down further and maybe it will - next days and weeks will tell.