The weather looks good from here gav.There was a cyclone called...

The weather looks good from here gav.

There was a cyclone called Abele located about 700 miles west of Cocos Island tracking SW but ran into cooler waters and blew itself out yesterday. It never was a threat and probably knew it couldn't compete with the impending high pressure emanating from Artemis anyway.

Ya, some great technical posts again, thanks.

It looks like the business end of the prolonged farmout, culminating in the long awaited Artemis probe, is imminent.

The CR and T/D curve document has caused havoc in the market. I have a feeling that some holders were expecting a 30 day drilling programme but the T/D curve showing the first target (Calypso) to be reached after 11 days could have taken some ST holders by surprise, hence the domino effect. Mid-drill suddenly became the present.

The stops that were hit may have been placed there for safety by those who wanted to secure their profits in the event of a duster. The CR, panic and clever big-boy trading brought them into range sooner than they thought.

And for those who aren't used to the MEO swings, similar ones have happened in a day - 12 Oct 2009 High 64 Low 49 close 54.5 on a volume of 16.9m (this coincided with the 2009 ann report release). There was also a >20% daily swing leading up to the non-announcement (if I remember rightly about ~59 down to ~46 on an uptrend) but the figures are out of range on my basic daily chart.

Manipulation has always been associated with MEO so we can either look for the patterns and join in, as Anatol suggests, or ride it out LT with the protective clothing in place.

We came out of the TH Thurs 25 Nov and the first days volume of 16.7m was probably the ST & BESBs holders selling out like they would have anyway. The next day was a low 3.4m and on Mon 29 10.7m. The range in these 3 days was 55.5-50.

Perhaps I am showing my ignorance but I don't think any of the new CR SHs were involved 25-29 Nov, unless they were already holding some shares and used these to cover any potential losses.

There was a HC post from Bentano Post: 6005264 dated 25 Nov::

'I wouldnt be too worried long term holders- I took place in the CR and shorted the stock straight away to lock in the profit. I know nothing about the comapny but got an offer and took the cash and ran...'

I don't understand how you can short stock that you do not hold, apart from naked shorts. Perhaps Bentano, or someone else, could explain how this works? If this is the case then 16.7m volume 25 Nov could have included this type of transaction.

Anyway, the new shares were issued on 30th Nov with an open price was 51c so the instos could have gone into immediate safety mode and averaged down or sold at a loss over the last 4 trading days of last. The range in the 4 days was 52-42 with 73m shares changing hands so the new instos could have bailed out. But why would they at a loss?

It could be our usual manipulators playing their usual games. Perhaps the new instos are only too willing to relieve them of their shares to average down. They must have seen something they liked in the company.

But this is just pure speculation.

The payments wouldn't have been cleared until Fri 3 Dec (TevezFC P&C term sheet 30 Nov T+3). This is probably why the T20 hasn't been released yet. If we had the usual end of the month update then any new major SHs would not have been able to be included. The new T20 may also include any changes after last weeks 100m turnover.

It will be interesting to see the changes, if any, later on today.

All this means to the remaining SHs is that MEO's fundamentals have improved whilst giving us a paper loss from the high of two weeks ago. What this means to the individual MEOmite depends on his/her position.

At least the fall from the 43c SP in the event of a 68% GCOF taking will not be so large now. I hope we are on a winner and I still believe in the confidence of the MEO and PBR experts but I am not insular to the risks involved. The rational in DMs AGM presentations (both 2009 and 2010), along with the Artemis Overview document, is quite plausible.

We still have a binary A#1 result but, as Ya and Epaka have discussed, a third outcome is possible. The fact that the CEO has purchased more shares is also an indication he has confidence in the company no matter what the result is at Artemis.

There is nothing much else we can do for now but wait for the results this week and watch the games being played in the market. Even after the result is known the games will still be played.

Let's hope they are soon to be played for higher stakes.

Good luck everyone.

#:>))