Climate models are a waist of time and framed around a world that literally does not exist in reality.
Here is another of "reality bites"
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1364682625000872#preview-section-abstract
"This indicates that geomagnetic activity modulates the Earth’s radiation budget by interfering with atmospheric processes (possibly via ionization, electric field effects, or water vapor behavior)."Title:
A decline of linear relation between outgoing longwave radiation and temperature during geomagnetic disturbances
Main Goal:
To investigate how geomagnetic disturbances influence the relationship between outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and near-surface temperature (NST) from 1979 to 2022, with a focus on different latitudinal zones and atmospheric optical thickness.
Data & Methods:
OLR data: From NCAR, grid interpolated (2.5° × 2.5°)
NST data: From NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis at 0.995 σ level
Geomagnetic activity indicator:PC-index (measures polar cap disturbances)
Focus on quiet vs. disturbed geomagnetic conditions
Key Findings:
1. Under Quiet Geomagnetic Conditions:
OLR and NST show a linear relationship, especially in mid- and high-latitude “optically thin” atmospheres (>30°).
In low-latitude, optically thick regions (especially over oceans), there is often an anticorrelation between OLR and NST. This supports earlier findings that cloud cover can reduce OLR despite rising SSTs.
In winter ocean regions (up to 60° latitude in both hemispheres), this anticorrelation is particularly strong, likely due to cloud influence.
2. During Geomagnetic Disturbances:
The linear correlation between OLR and NST weakens, especially:
In mid- and high-latitudes, where OLR becomes less sensitive to NST changes, notably in spring.
In low-latitude optically thick regions, disturbances cause noticeable deviations from the expected OLR response.
This indicates that geomagnetic activity modulates the Earth’s radiation budget by interfering with atmospheric processes (possibly via ionization, electric field effects, or water vapor behavior).
Role of Water Vapor:
Water vapor is central to the linear OLR-NST relationship due to its infrared absorption characteristics.
It acts as a regulator: under both quiet and disturbed conditions, water vapor’s presence and behavior explain much of the OLR-NST coupling or decoupling.
Broader Context:
The study supports the theory that solar and geomagnetic forces impact climate not just via direct irradiance but also by modulating atmospheric processes, possibly via:
Global electric circuits
Cosmic ray–aerosol interactions
Non-linear feedback loops
However, they acknowledge that previous GCR-based mechanisms (like those explored in the CLOUD experiment) are not strong enough alone to explain climatic shifts, reinforcing the need to look at electric field-driven interactions during solar/geomagnetic events.
Conclusion:
Geomagnetic disturbances reduce the predictability of OLR based on surface temperature alone.
This finding challenges climate model assumptions that rely on linear OLR-NST relationships.
Highlights the need to incorporate space weather influences (solar wind, IMF, geomagnetic indices) into future climate models, particularly for high-latitude and oceanic regions.
