Earth's average surface temperature warming trend is projected to continue for at least the next five years, according to experts at the World Meteorological Organization.
those foolishly wanting uniform global warming will continue to be disappointed. The report predicts Arctic warming will be at least 3.5 times the global average over the next five years.
for those whose senses haven't deserted them, this relatively strong surface warming trend will likely put Arctic Sea ice area and concentration under further pressure and continue decadal trend declines.
below the headline and start of a statement by the WMO about the report.
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION:
"Global climate predictions show temperatures expected to remain at or near record levels in coming 5 years"
"The annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 is predicted to be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C higher than the average over the years 1850-1900, according to a report issued today by the World Meteorological Organization."
"There is an 80% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than the warmest year on record (currently 2024). And there is an 86% chance that at least one year will be more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level.
"The report does not give global predictions for individual years.
"There is a forecast 70% chance that the five-year average warming for 2025-2029 will be more than 1.5°C, according to the report. This is up from 47% in last year’s report (for the 2024-2028 period) and up from 32% in the 2023 report for the 2023-2027 period.
"Every additional fraction of a degree of warming drives more harmful heatwaves, extreme rainfall events, intense droughts, melting of ice sheets, sea ice, and glaciers, heating of the ocean, and rising sea levels.
"Other key points: -Arctic warming over the next five extended winters (November to March) is predicted to be more than three and a half times the global average, at 2.4°C above the average temperature during the most recent 30-year baseline period (1991-2020).
-Predictions of sea ice for March 2025-2029 suggest further reductions in sea-ice concentration in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk.
"Predicted precipitation patterns for May-September 2025-2029, relative to the 1991-2020 baseline, suggest wetter than average conditions in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, and drier than average conditions for this season over the Amazon. Recent years, apart from 2023, in the South Asian region have been wetter than average and the forecast suggests this will continue for the 2025-2029 period. This may not be the case for all individual seasons in this period.
"The update is produced by the UK’s Met Office as the WMO Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction. It provides a synthesis of predictions from WMO designated Global Producing Centres and other contributing centres. It is one of a suite of WMO products which provide scientific monitoring and predictions of our climate to inform decision-making.
""We have just experienced the ten warmest years on record. Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet,” said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett.
""Continued climate monitoring and prediction is essential to provide decision-makers with science-based tools and information to help us adapt,” she said.
