Manmade Global Warming - New Extremes, page-83

The following review of the world’s climate last month was published in Yale Climate Connections weekly newsletter published Friday Sep. 14. It was prepared by Dr Jeff Masters, who holds a PhD in air pollution meteorology.

“September 2021: Earth’s 5th-warmest September on record

”The month featured the arrival of La Niña and the globe’s highest food prices in 46 years.

“September 2021 was Earth’s fifth-warmest September since global record-keeping began in 1880, 0.90 degree Celsius (1.62°F) above the 20th-century average (and just 0.04 degree Celsius below the record held jointly by 2020, 2019, 2016, and 2015), NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, NCEI, reported October 14.

“NASA reported September 2021 as the second-warmest September on record, 1.16 degrees Celsius (2.09°F) above the 1880-1920 period, which is its best estimate of preindustrial temperature. Minor differences in rankings between the two agencies result from the different ways they treat data-sparse regions such as the Arctic.

””The month’s heat was focused more on land areas than ocean areas, thus impacting society more directly: September 2021 global ocean temperatures were the sixth warmest on record, according to NOAA, with global land areas experiencing their second warmest September on record.

“.January-September ranked as Earth’s sixth warmest such period on record.

“According to NCEI’s annual temperature outlook, the year 2021 is highly likely to rank among the 10 warmest years on record, and more than 95% likely to fall in the range of sixth- to seventh-warmest on record. These odds are based on statistical averages and do not take into account the arrival of La Niña (see below), which tends to reduce global temperature slightly.

La Niña has arrived

”A La Niña event has begun in the Eastern Pacific, NOAA reported in its October monthly discussion of the state of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, or ENSO.Over the past week, sea surface temperatures in the benchmark Niño 3.4 region of the eastern tropical Pacific (5°N-5°S, 170°W-120°W) were 0.6 degree Celsius below average. The range for “weak” La Niña conditions is 0.5-1.0 degree Celsius below average; the range for a “moderate” La Niña is 1.0-1.5 degrees Celsius below average.

“The NOAA and Columbia University International Research Institute for Climate and Society forecast for the December-January-February period is for an 87% chance of La Niña, 13% chance of ENSO-neutral, and a 0% chance of El Niño.

”At its peak, the La Niña event is expected to be at moderate-strength (57% chance). Historically, about half of all northern hemisphere winter La Niña events (such as that during the previous 2020-2021 winter, also of moderate strength) have continued into or re-emerged during the following winter.

Arctic sea ice: 12th-lowest September extent on record

”Arctic sea ice extent during September 2021 was the 12th-lowest in the 43-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Low pressure and cloudy skies dominated the Arctic this summer, leading to the highest September ice extent since 2014.

”Despite September total ice extent being higher than in recent years, the amount of multiyear ice was at a near-record low, with an extent of only 1.29 million square kilometers (498,000 square miles), just slightly above the record-low value of 1.27 million square kilometers (490,000 square miles) at the end of the 2012 melt season. Arctic ice thickness and volume were also at near-record low values in September 2021.

Antarctica: a near-record cold winter and a significant ozone hole

”According to NSIDC, “For the interior of the Antarctic continent, specifically the region near the South Pole, the winter of 2021 was among the coldest on record. At the National Science Foundation’s Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station, temperatures for June, July, and August were 3.4 degrees Celsius (6.1 degrees Fahrenheit) lower than the 1981-to-2010 average at -62.9 degrees Celsius (-81.2 degrees Fahrenheit).”These temperatures make the 2021 winter the second coldest winter (June-July-August) on record, behind only 2004 in the 60-year weather record at the South Pole Station.

Food prices hit a 46-year high

“Global food prices in September were at their highest level since September 2011, said the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in its monthly report on October 7.

“After adjusting for inflation, 2021 food prices averaged for the first nine months of the year were the highest since 1975. The September increase was driven by a surge in the price of grains and vegetable oil, with wheat prices a dominant driver; drought in Russia and Canada contributed to the high wheat prices. However, total global production of grains in 2021 is expected to set an all-time record: 1.1% more than the previous record set in 2020.

“Unfortunately, because of higher demand (in part, from an increased amount of wheat used to feed animals), the 2021 harvest was not expected to meet consumption requirements in 2021/2022, resulting in a drawdown in global grain inventories to their lowest levels since 2015/2016.”