So much for "Global Boiling " ...Well, that was brief.
Just six months after El Nino emerged, meteorologists have said the signs are all there for the climate driver to peter out within months – to be replaced by yet another La Nina.
La Nina's generally mean more rain and cooler temperatures for Australia...
“Dramatic changes,” are occurring within the ocean to the east of Australia, Sky News Weather meteorologist Rob Sharpe told news.com.au...
“Everything is going according to plan in the Pacific Ocean for this to become a La Nina event.”
“But El Nino tends to last less time than La Nina that can last up to three years as we found in recent years.”
‘Dramatic change’
A key signal of La Nina is when the sea surface in the eastern Pacific cools to 0.8C below average for a prolonged period. The ocean hasn’t reached that point yet – but it’s getting there. “The ocean is changing dramatically at the moment,” said Mr Sharpe. “Under the surface we’ve been watching a region of colder than usual waters move eastwards and get closer to the surface over the last couple of months. ”Some of that cold water has surfaced in the Pacific, west of Ecuador’s Galapagos Islands. “La Nina is likely to develop in early winter,” he added. Sky News Weather has put the change of a La Nina at 85 per cent...‘Unusually cold water’
The US’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is also bullish about an imminent La Nina.
Earlier this month, it stated that there was now a 62 per cent chance of a return to La Nina by June or August after a brief spell in ENSO neutral between April and June.
“A pool of unusually cold water has appeared at the surface of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, hinting that the foundations of a La Nina event may be lurking beneath the surface,” it stated...La Nina effects
During LA Nina, cooler sea temperatures
in the eastern Pacific push trade winds westwards which in turn moves warmer waters to Australia’s east coast. That creates more clouds and more clouds makes more rains.
“Wetter than usual weather is likely for much of Australia through winter and spring – particularly for northern, central and south eastern inland Australia,” said Mr Sharpe.
And the rain could come earlier than usual. Western Australia is less affected by ENSO. “The question really is – will the atmosphere respond to the cooling ocean properly?” Or in other words, if we’ve just had a half-hearted El Nino could we be in for a half-hearted La Nina as well? In some places even a fully fledged La Nina may not bring much extra rainfall.“ For Sydneysiders, for example, La Nina is not a guarantee of wetter than usual weather as historically La Nina has only had a small influence on Sydney’s rainfall,” Mr Sharpe said.“ However, it was part of the reason why Sydney had a record wet year in 2022. “Flooding is a much greater concern than it was during the first La Nina event we had a few years ago because the landscape is much wetter and dams are much fuller.” ...
"Even the rain that falls, isn'tactually going to fill our dams and ourriver systems"
Flannery
