In the next 50 to 100 years, Earth’s agricultural landmass could increase by almost one-third. And, according to a recent study published in the journal PLOS One, Canada and Russia could be home to the majority of those new farming frontiers, with respective gains of 4.2 and 4.3 million square kilometres each.
“Much of the land in our northern hemisphere is not suitable for agriculture at the moment,” says Krishna Bahadur K.C., an adjunct professor in the University of Guelph’s department of geography, environment and geomatics and a lead researcher on the study. “Between 2060 and 2080, however, those areas may be suitable to convert into farming land due to increasing temperature, rainfall and longer growing season.”
Global agriculture frontiers are projected to be most prominent in the boreal regions of the Northern hemisphere and mountainous regions.
Current limitations such as temperature, levels of precipitation and length of growing seasons may change in the future, which will allow for an increase in agricultural landmass. One of the factors that may induce this transformation is climate change.
For the study, the researchers analyzed projections for temperature and precipitation from 17 global climate models along with agricultural models that predict suitability for 12 globally important food crops. In Canada, these crops include corn, soy, potatoes and wheat.
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