there's been some discussion on this thread about any impact of manmade global warming on cyclone frequency and intensity, or as they're known in the US hurricanes.
stirring this pot just this month has been the unusually early formation of Hurricane Beryl, a tempest that has stormed its way from the mid tropical Atlantic across the Caribbean into western areas of the Gulf of Mexico before heading north into Texas.
what follows is some of the latest scientific thinking on the human influence on Beryl. The excerpts below come from an article written by Bob Berwyn and published Monday on Inside Climate News.
"As Hurricane Beryl Surged Toward Texas, Scientists Found Human-Driven Warming Intensified Its Wind and Rain"
"All recent research on global warming and tropical storms show the growing threat for developing island states and other vulnerable coastal areas."
"Climate heating caused by fossil fuel pollution supercharged Hurricane Beryl during its unusually early July push from the heart of the tropical Atlantic Ocean to the coast of Texas, scientists said Friday.
"Beryl maintained tropical storm force passing into the Gulf of Mexico and was strengthening Sunday as it approached the central Texas coast, with hurricane warnings reaching from High Island to Sabine Pass.
"The National Hurricane Center forecasts the storm to make landfall late Sunday or early Monday as a Category 1 storm with 85-mph winds.
"Meanwhile, in a rapid attribution study that compared regional climate conditions in the 1979 to 2001 period with conditions in the last two decades, researchers said global warming made Beryl’s wind and rain between 10 and 30 percent more intense.
"Tropical storms that form in the region have been “significantly intensified by human-driven climate change,” said climate researcher Tommaso Alberti, with Italy’s National Institute of Geophysics and Vulcanology.
""This means that, while we might see similar episodes with the same frequency, their intensity will be stronger, leading to catastrophic consequences for the vulnerable Caribbean islands.”"
......
"The study was done by an international research consortium called ClimaMeter, formed to provide a scientific framework for understanding extreme weather events in the context of human-caused warming. The group is funded by the European Union and the French National Centre for Scientific Research.
"The research is a “clarion call for urgent adaptation and climate mitigation measures,” said researcher David Faranda, with the French National Centre for Scientific Research.
"“Intensifying hurricanes, coupled with sea-level rise, are expected to exacerbate the severity and frequency of such disasters in a warming climate.”
"Hurricane experts have been warning for months that extremely high sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic could contribute to a hyperactive hurricane season this year.
"Two days before Beryl formed, forecasters with the National Hurricane Centersaid environmental conditions were “unusually conducive for late June across the central and western tropical Atlantic.”
"On July 3, just a couple of days after forming, Beryl intensified rapidly to become a Category 4 hurricane, marking by far the earliest formation of a major hurricane in the Atlantic.
"Rapid hurricane intensification is part of a trend observed in recent climate research and predicted by climate scientists for more than 30 years.
" A 2023 study in Scientific Reports, for example, found tropical cyclone intensification rates were nearly 29 percent greater in the 2001 to 2022 period than in the 1971 to 1990 period. That study also found that the number of tropical storms that intensify from Category 1 to major hurricane status within 36 hours has more than doubled in the last 20 years.
"Reflecting research done in the past few decades, the U.S. National Climate Assessment concludes: “The intensity, frequency, and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest hurricanes, have all increased since the early 1980s. Hurricane intensity and rainfall are projected to increase as the climate continues to warm.” "
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